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STORY: Here’s what to watch in the world of business and finance over the week to July 1.

A turbulent first half marked by rate rises, market turmoil and war-fuelled inflation comes to an end. The second half doesn’t look much better, but could at least see inflation peak. Rate rises look set to be remorseless though.

Central bank policymakers gather from Monday in the foothills of Portugal’s Sintra mountains. Analysts will scour every syllable from Christine Lagarde and co for clues to their next moves.

A raft of data will show how the U.S. economy is responding to Fed rate hikes so far, with Tuesday’s consumer confidence numbers forecast to tumble. Home sales data will show what the increases are doing to mortgage borrowers.

But China’s latest factory data could offer hope on Thursday. A move into growth territory there would encourage those who see Chinese stocks as haven from the stagflation fears stalking the west.

And four months into the war in Ukraine, east-west tensions are mounting again. Watch for Moscow’s response to the embargo on some supplies to its Kaliningrad exclave. The week could also see Russia slip closer to default on some bonds.