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China's reopening will be 'messy and confusing' -CIO

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2 個月前

STORY: China is set to announce a further easing of some of the world's toughest COVID curbs as early as Wednesday (Dec. 7), sources said, as investors cheered the prospect of a policy shift that follows widespread protests and mounting economic damage.

But Rathburn warns that those depending on the Chinese to go out and spend money for economic growth should not get too excited. Part of the reason for that, she said, is that “what you’re finding, even if everything reopened, is a middle class that’s very wary of not only government intervention in the zero-COVID policy, but also may be cash poor. You have to remember there is a real estate crisis still going on in China and that has made people feel poor. The wealth effect goes against the consumer going-out-and-spending theory. And the Chinese economy has actually not been doing very well. So this is not an American story of reopening, where we get to be excited about Chinese consumption.”

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Reuters