Why the bond market is this strategist's highest conviction trade
As markets prepare for further volatility as the US election kicks into high gear and Federal Reserve officials convene in Washington, Winthrop Capital Management CIO Adam Coons joins Wealth host Brad Smith to discuss why the US bond market (^TYX, ^TNX, ^FVX) is attractive for investors' portfolios.
Coons says that the US election and the Federal Reserve's ongoing rate easing cycle are two of the biggest black swan events facing the market domestically, while there are "very large conflicts that could spread at some point. Whether you're looking at the Ukraine-Russian conflict or if you're looking in the Middle East... When we've got so many of these things kind of coming to a head at the same time, that's when we start to ponder, 'How do we position ourselves?'"
The strategist acknowledges that investors have been "moving more defensively as we kind of head into year-end:
"This has obviously been an incredible year for markets. And when you're up 20% or more on the S&P (^GSPC)... It's probably not a bad idea right now to start thinking about pulling back and maybe putting more defense into a portfolio, whether that's lower beta, lower volatility stocks, higher dividend stocks, or increasing your fixed income allocation a little bit."
He adds "Incrementallym moving more defensively, I think, is a smart move as you see all these things because there's just an increasing potential of one of them really causing dislocations in markets."
Coons says his highest conviction trade is the bond market. He explains, "The risk that rates go much higher from here is fairly low," so the two most likely scenarios, rates staying the same or going lower, are likely to cause the appreciation of the price of bonds.
To watch more expert insights and analysis on the latest market action, check out more Wealth here.
This post was written by Naomi Buchanan.
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