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STORY:

When will North Korea test a nuclear weapon?

A flurry of missile launches this year has raised expectations Pyongyang could hold its seventh nuclear weapons test.

Technical preparations have reportedly been completed in the underground tunnels at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test site, which has been shuttered since 2018.

The question of timing - South Korean officials say – now lies in the hands of leader Kim Jong Un.

[When would they test?]

South Korean lawmakers – briefed by spies last month – say a possible test window could be between the Chinese Communist Party congress, which begins on October 16, and the US midterm elections on November 7.

Other considerations that may guide Kim’s thinking are the COVID-19 situation in the country, local holidays…

…changing events in the war in Ukraine…

…or signalling from partners in China and Russia.

[What would they test?]

Analysts say Pyongyang could pivot to developing smaller tactical nukes on short-range missiles – for battlefields, not for cities.

“I think the reason they are trying to carry out the seventh nuclear test is that they want to show the confidence that they can miniaturize nuclear weapons and load them onto missiles.”

Making warheads smaller is also an advantage for North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missiles or ICBMs. Fitting multiple warheads inside a single missile, lets them strike several targets at once and confuse air defences.

[More detectable missiles]

North Korea is expanding its arsenal of missiles.

And they’re harder to intercept or detect.

Analysts say the state has successfully tested missiles launched from submerged barges in reservoirs.

“It’s very threatening since we don’t know which reservoir it will fly from.”

It also has a new train-based launch system, that looks like innocuously like a passenger car when it’s not set up.

“It seems like they are making a lot of effort to develop a new platform to avoid detection. I think it means they are afraid of Korea-U.S. detection capacity.”

The isolated country claimed this week, recent short-range missile tests were part of practice runs to wipe out South Korean military targets with nuclear warheads…

…raising tensions on the Peninsula to levels not seen since Pyongyang’s last nuclear test in 2017.

All this – point to Kim wanting to legitimize his weapons program, and put pressure on Washington when its hands are full with the war in Ukraine and with other crises.